Macro-Economic Factors in Credit Risk Calculations: Including Time-Varying Covariates in Mixture Cure Models

The prediction of the time of default in a credit risk setting via survival analysis needs to take a high censoring rate into account. This rate is because default does not occur for the majority of debtors. Mixture cure models allow the part of the loan population that is unsusceptible to default to be modeled, distinct from time of default for the susceptible population. In this article, we extend the mixture cure model to include time-varying covariates. We illustrate the method via simulations and by incorporating macro-economic factors as predictors for an actual bank dataset.     

R package rjmcmc: reversible jump MCMC using post‐processing

The rjmcmc package for R implements the post‐processing reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm of Barker & Link. MCMC output from each of the models is used to estimate posterior model probabilities and Bayes factors. Automatic differentiation is used to simplify implementation. The package is demonstrated on two examples.     

The Evolution of Housing Typologies for Older Adults in The Netherlands From 1945 to 2016: An Analysis in the Context of Policy,Societal, and Technological Developments

This study aims to examine housing typologies for older adults in the light of three qualitatively examined exogenous factors: policy, societal developments, and technology. The developments in inpatient and assisted ambulatory housing facilities for older adults have been mapped from 1945 to 2016 using quantitative data. Using these data, five transition periods can be distinguished. Within the first transition periods, policy factors were tremendously important, while within the later ones, societal influence empowered by technological change became the primarily driving factor. This research shows that the classification of inpatient, assisted ambulatory housing, and outpatient housing may no longer be applicable in its current form.     

《民族学刊》2014~2018年影响因子比较分析——基于《中国学术期刊影响因子年报（人文社会科学）》数据

《民族学刊》于2010年6月创刊，相继入选“复印报刊资料重要转载来源期刊”“北大核心期刊”“人文社科核心期刊”和“CSSCI来源期刊”，表明了《民族学刊》在学界和期刊界的学术影响，其期刊的影响因子值得研究和探讨。本文基于《中国学术期刊影响因子年报（人文社会科学）》公布的影响因子、各类计量指标和人文社科类影响因子、被引频次及可被引文献量等数据，对《民族学刊》的相应数据与C95民族学类期刊在期刊影响力指数、影响因子均值及量效指数均值、各类计量指标均值和人文社科类影响因子、被引频次及可被引文献量均值等方面进行统计对比，分析《民族学刊》2014~2018年五年间的影响因子数据在民族学类期刊位置及其学术影响。     

Does the Role of Student Factors with Adolescent Substance Use Vary by Geography?

This study assesses the association of 12th-grade student factors (e.g., grades, classroom misbehaviors) with substance use (i.e., binge drinking, cigarette smoking, marijuana) across large, medium-sized, and nonmetropolitan areas. Based on a sample of 2,189 students from the 2013 Monitoring the Future data set, logistic regression analyses showed that poor student academic and behavioral factors were associated with higher substance use after controlling for gender, race, and socioeconomic status. Interaction analyses further showed no significant differences in the influence of student factors on substance use across locales. Results suggest that prevention efforts against substance use should target student factors regardless of area of residency.     

铸牢中华民族共同体意识的法治实践路径研究

根据第五次中央民族工作会议的指导精神,中华民族共同体的法治建设与铸牢中华民族共同体意识是交叉同构的, 需在习近平法治思想和马克思主义多民族国家建设理论的基础上,探析铸牢中华民族共同体意识的法治实践路径。 第一,可 建设权利本位与义务本位相协调的中华民族法制共同体。 第二,应以党的领导为统领推进民族事务治理法治化。 第三,需以 立法、执法、司法为统筹全面深化法治实践。 第四,可通过法治教育为媒介巩固共有法治精神家园。 总之,法制共同体是中华 民族为人类历史转向所优化的现代法治范式,法治为铸牢中华民族共同体意识提供了制度实践基础,彰显了依法治国背景下 “德法共治”的平衡。     

Ngarraanga Giinganay (‘thinking peacefully’): Co-design and pilot study of a culturally-grounded mindfulness-based stress reduction program with older First Nations Australians

First Nations ‘survivors’ are ageing in increasing numbers. Life-course stress and depression are of concern for older First Nations Australians, yet there are limited psychosocial interventions. This study aimed to co-design a culturally-grounded mindfulness-based program (‘Ngarraanga Giinganay’) and evaluate acceptability/feasibility with an Aboriginal community on Gumbaynggirr Country. An expert Working Group guided program development, with Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal clinicians/consultants. A workshop, collaborative yarning group with older Aboriginal people (n = 9), and further consultation contributed to the design/refinement of the 8-session group-based program, ensuring content aligned with therapeutic principles of mindfulness and cultural understandings of the Gumbaynggirr community. A single-group pilot study was conducted (n = 7, 62−81 years), co-facilitated by an Aboriginal clinician and Elder. Outcomes were qualitative (understandings of mindfulness, program acceptability, benefits to health/wellbeing). Pilot results demonstrated feasibility, acceptability and preliminary effectiveness. The program enhanced understandings of mindfulness and participants highlighted benefits such as helping anxiety, relaxation, focusing on the moment and connection to Country/land. Trends were seen for reducing depression, anxiety and stress symptoms, and blood pressure. This study provides insight into partnering with underrepresented populations through ageing research, highlighting the effectiveness of this co-design approach. Ngarraanga Giinganay has considerable potential for supporting health and wellbeing of First Nations peoples.     

德教、德政与道德法律化——论德治的三种解释

关于德治，有三种重要的解释，也即德教、德政与道德法律化。它们都有各自的问题。德治作为德教的问题在于:德治如何能成为与法治比肩的治国方略?在证成德治时，如何能够从关于道德功用的事实判断推出德治这一价值判断?如何证成道德建设的可行性与有效性?如何证成国家介入道德建设的正当性和必要性?德治作为德政的问题是:德政已是人类社会的常识，似乎没有必要借助于德治的概念来推广，而且它无法很好地解释人们提出德治理念时心中已有的德治与法治的背景关系。德治作为道德法律化面临的挑战是:它可能会危及人们自由选择自己道德生活的权利，毁损人生的意义与价值，扰乱人们的道德认知与评价，并使得法律必须满足的一些要件难以实现，影响法律规则的合理性。     

高新技术企业价值影响因素的实证分析——来自沪深两市电子信息技术行业的经验数据

采用多元线性回归方法,以2002～2004年我国沪深两市电子信息技术行业的87家上市公司为研究对象,从企业资源和经营能力两方面对影响我国高新技术企业价值驱动因素进行了实证分析。分析结果表明:样本公司账面有形资产和研究开发费与企业价值正相关,但账面无形资产对企业价值的影响不显著,广告费与企业价值负相关;企业经营能力与企业价值正相关,良好的经营能力与资源有效结合,可以提升企业价值。     

中外跨文化团队合作的成功因素分析

随着我国国际化程度的不断加强,跨文化交流与合作越来越频繁,企业的国际化更多地面临着多样性的挑战,特别是文化的多样性能否给企业带来优势是很多企业面临的重要命题,其中跨文化团队的合作成功与否对于国际化企业有着重要的影响。文章从文化理论出发,以中欧学生团队作为实证分析的基础,探讨了中外跨文化团队的成功因素。